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Projection of Rainfall Forecast & Cyclone Probability in India during September-October 2023


Fig 1: Rainfall forecast for next 4 weeks

Ø  The cyclonic system is lying in Central Odisha and the regions adjoining Chattisgarh.

Ø  There is a high probability that this cyclonic system moves into the Central India i.e., Central parts of Madhya Pradesh in coming 2 days.

Ø  As a result, there are high chances of heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Bihar and Chattisgarh.

Ø  Moderate to heavy widespread rains are expected in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, some parts of Kerala,Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in next 5-6 days.

Ø  From September 15-21, there is probability of the cyclonic system moving towards Bay of Bengal.

Ø  This system over BOB may lead to heavy rainfall in West Bengal, coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, some regions of Telangana.

Ø  BySeptember 20-21, the cyclonic system is expected to move into the southcentral region, towards Maharashtra from BOB.

Ø  This system may bring heavy rainfalls over Maharashtra, and  moderate to heavy falls over Madhya Pradesh and Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand.

Ø  From September 22-28, the probability of the cyclonic system over East India is very low.

Ø  The downpours are gradually expected to decrease in Coastal Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

Ø  Moderate widespread rains are likely to be over West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, whereas, North-eastern states like Assam, Meghalaya may experience isloated rainfalls.

Ø  Coming to the fourth week, i.e. September 29-October 5, the intensity and the coverage of  rainfall is forecasted to be less and isolated.

Ø  Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may experience isolated low rainfalls.

Fig 2: forecast of Rainfall in September 

Fig 3: forecast of Rainfall in October


Ø  The overall rainfall status of India in the month of September is forecasted to be below normal level in maximum number of regions like Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat etc,.

Ø  Southern regions like Kerala, Tamilnadu, Karnataka and some parts of Maharashtra, along with some North-eastern regions like Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh are likely to receive rainfall above the normla level.

Ø  Whereas in the october month, the rainfall is expected to be below the normal level in region like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh etc,. and above-normal level is expected in states like coastal Karnataka, some regions of Rajasthan and Punjab, North-eastern states and some regions of Bihar and Jharkhand.


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