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Showing posts from January, 2024

Indian Wheat prices may look North - By Dr B K Singh

Fig. 1 In 2022-23, wheat exports were under OGL. In open trade, the global wheat prices dictated Indian prices. In face of Ukraine crisis, Global Wheat prices topped US $ 2100/MT. Indian prices too rose shortly from Rs. 2850 to Rs. 3200/quintal. After many years, farmers were able to get prices well above MSP. Fig. 2 It is when Government intervened and put restriction in Wheat exports. As a result, sharp decline in domestic prices of Wheat were seen. Global Wheat prices have since been declining as can be seen in Fig. 1. Domestic prices have however ruled steady despite several restrictions imposed for stock control. Dwindling stocks at the FCI and firm domestic demand has kept Indian prices steady. With El Nino looming large, lack of rains in January and higher temperature predicted in coming weeks could reduce the Wheat output. Market may continue to be firm for Wheat.

Will El Nino affect Wheat Production in India? - By Dr B K Singh & Purnima Nair

The winter months of December and January have witnessed an unusual absence of strong western disturbances (WDs) over North India. This deficiency, attributed in part to the El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific and a northward shift of the westerly jet stream. It has not rained in Jan 2024 so far. As of now in wheat producing area of North- Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh, rain deficiencies have ranged 54% to 99%. This deficit, coupled with the absence of snowfall in higher elevations, raises concerns for the health of the Rabi crops, particularly wheat. Impact on Wheat Cultivation:  The Rabi crop, especially wheat, heavily relies on precipitation during the winter months. The deficiency in rainfall and snowfall may have implications for soil moisture levels, potentially affecting wheat germination and growth. In this current situation, ground water irrigation may offer some protection. What is more disturbing is the absenc

Climate change affecting Snowfall in Himalayas- Red Flag for Kharif 2024 - By Dr. B K Singh & Purnima Nair

  Fig. 1: Map Indicating Statewise Storage Position   (Source: CWC) Over the past five years, climate change has altered ground water availability, affecting the agricultural sector in India. Melting of glaciers in the Himalayan region and reduced snowfall has been witnessed. In Kharif season,(April to September) rainfall , plays a vital role in India's agricultural calendar and the success of Kharif crops depends heavily on monsoon. In absence of rainfall, ground water plays a major role in irrigation. The impact of climate change, coupled with the complex and variable nature of El Nino events, has led to a concerning pattern of reduced snowfall, affecting water availability for agriculture. Last monsoon was 8% deficient due to impact of El Nino. Western disturbances this year has been far and few. Low snowfall could spell serious shortage in ground water availability. As of January 11, 2024, data from the Reservoir Storage bulletin reveals that the total live storage of the count