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Monsoon 2024: A Slow Start but Promising Outlook

  Monsoon 2024 has finally arrived, the progress is a bit slow, with cumulative shortfall of 8.7% so far. However, the overall monsoon is expected to be as predicted, with 106% of the LPA. This year's monsoon follows a challenging 2023 season, which witnessed El Niño conditions. The transition to La Niña conditions is underway, suggesting that normal to above-normal rainfall could be expected but changeover will be irregular. Regional Rainfall Predictions To provide a comprehensive understanding of the expected rainfall distribution and its impact, please refer to three graph below, detailing the rainfall predictions from June to October 2024.                   Prediction for Jun/July/Aug              Prediction  for  July/Aug/Sept                                                                                          Prediction  for Aug/Sept/Oct Reservoir Status and Water Management Reservoir levels are currently low, particularly in the southern region. According to the
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Wheat Prices Surge Despite Bumper Harvest: What’s Fueling the Market?

Current Market Scenario The wheat market is currently experiencing high prices despite a significant production increase. Over the past month, both government and non-government entities have been actively procuring wheat, which has contributed to the price surge. Last week, wheat prices were recorded at Rs 2500 per quintal, which has now risen to Rs 2530/2535 per quintal. This trend indicates limited scope for price reduction due to continuous procurement activities across several states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh.   Price Stability and Fluctuations Price Increase: Wheat prices have increased by approximately Rs 70-100 per quintal over the last 14 days across major trading centers. Market Stability: Prices are expected to remain steady to firm due to supply constraints and strong domestic demand. Price Fluctuations: As long as government procurement continues, prices are likely to fluctuate within a range of Rs 30-40. Fig.1 Government P

Heavy Rains Ahead: Pulse Crops in South India Face Stormy Challenges

Fig. 1: Rain Activities over many regions of Tamil Nadu Current Situation A cyclonic circulation persisting over South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka. This system is moving eastwards, expected to form a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions of South Tamil Nadu and North Sri Lanka within the next 24-48 hours. Forecast and Developments Cyclonic Activity: The low-pressure area is likely to intensify into a depression within the next 1-2 days and potentially strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal. It may reach the northwest Bay of Bengal near the Odisha coast as a severe cyclonic storm in the next 4-5 days. Landfall is projected between Srikakulam (Andhra Pradesh) and Ganga Sagar (West Bengal), near the central Odisha coast, likely as a severe or very severe cyclonic storm.   Rainfall: South India: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the Kerala Ghats of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, south Tamil Nadu, and we

Cyclonic Storm Alert: Essential Tips for Tobacco Growers

  Fig.1: Southwest Monsoon Prediction ( Source:IMD ) Current Situation A cyclonic circulation persists over South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka, moving eastwards. This system is expected to form a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions of South Tamil Nadu and North Sri Lanka within the next 24-48 hours. Forecast and Developments Cyclonic Activity: The low-pressure area is likely to intensify into a depression within the next 1-2 days. It has the potential to strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal. The system may reach the northwest Bay of Bengal near the Odisha coast as a severe cyclonic storm in the next 4-5 days. Projected landfall is between Srikakulam (Andhra Pradesh) and Ganga Sagar (West Bengal), near the central Odisha coast, likely as a severe or very severe cyclonic storm. Fig.2: Cyclonic Circulation over Coastal Tamil Nadu ( Source:Windy, ECMWF Forecast ) Rainfall: South India: Heavy to very hea

MONSOON 2024

India is poised to have a good monsoon this year. It can be seen for the NOAA graph of Fig. 1 below. El Nino conditions are changing to La Nina from May June July. Fig. 1: ENSO Probabilities by NOAA This year, the Southwest Monsoon is anticipated to arrive in extreme parts of South-SE Bay around the first week of May, gradually progressing northward. Seasonal Forecast as given by IRI in Fig. 2 below. Fig. 2: Seasonal Forecast by IRI Regional Outlook: The monsoon season may extend into early October this year. Western and Northwestern India: Above-normal to excess rainfall is possible over most parts of Western and Northwestern India, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. This increased Rains is likely to raise concerns for potential flooding, especially during the peak and late monsoon seasons. Rains are likely to be favorable to all Kharif Crops. Fig. 3: Rainfall forecast by IMD Southern and Southeastern India: While the

Weather Activities likely to change over many areas of North and Central India

Fig. 1 Currently, a western disturbance is forming as a trough around Pakistan, accompanied by the formation of a cyclone in the upper part of northeastern Rajasthan. Additionally, a trough is developing from southeastern Madhya Pradesh to Tamil Nadu. Anti-cyclones are present in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, resulting in western wind direction and moisture influx from both bodies of water. As a result of the current western disturbance, light to moderate rainfall/snowfall is anticipated over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh for the next two days, and Uttarakhand for the next seven days. The weather in Rajasthan is expected to undergo changes for the next 2-3 days due to the influence of the western disturbance. Over the next two days, the western disturbance is expected to progress eastward. Concurrently, a new western disturbance is set to become active, leading to cloud cover over half of Madhya Pradesh region with a possibility of dri

Relief Package to boost Tobacco Exports

The recent devastation caused by the Michaung cyclone in December 2023 severely impacted the tobacco crop of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The heavy rains led to significant damage, including crop washing out, drowning, waterlogging, and wilting. Approximately 20% of the total planted area in affected regions suffered losses, posing challenges to tobacco farmers. In response to the crisis, the Central government has announced a relief package aimed at boosting exports and alleviating the financial burden on tobacco farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The relief measures include: 1. Interest-Free Loans in Andhra Pradesh:   The Government of India has approved interest-free loans of Rs. 10,000 from the Grower Welfare Fund of the Tobacco Board for affected grower members. This financial assistance is intended to support farmers whose crops were damaged due to the cyclonic rains. This one-time loan is specifically designated for the Andhra Pradesh Crop Season 2023-24 and will be r

We "BKC Aggregators" welcome Government's offer for farmers

Government Relents on MSP Issue, Proposes Five-Year Contract to Secure Fair Returns for Farmers and Promote Sustainable Agriculture The government has relented on the contentious issue of Minimum Support Price (MSP). The proposal involves a groundbreaking five-year contract aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring fair returns for farmers cultivating pulses, maize, and cotton. This initiative comes at a crucial juncture, addressing long-standing grievances within the agricultural sector while also aligning with broader policy objectives of crop diversification and environmental sustainability. Major Points from the Meeting:  Union Cooperative Societies to Sign Five-Year Contracts: As per the proposal, the Cotton Corporation of India will enter a 5-year legal agreement with farmers to purchase the crops at MSP.  The government has brokered agreements with prominent Union cooperative societies such as the National Cooperative Consumers Federation (NCCF) and the National Agricultural

Potential Transition from El Niño to La Niña: Normal Monsoon likely in 2024

Ø   The country is currently experiencing an El Niño period, but in the upcoming months, it is gradually expecting a move towards La Niña. In the coming months, it is anticipated that the present El Niño will settle off and become neutral. (Fig.1) Fig. 1 (Source: NOAA) Ø   The next six months could see the emergence of La Niña due to favourable conditions. Initial predictions indicate that by April–June, there is a 79% probability that persistent El Niño conditions would change to ENSO-Neutral. There is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing in the Pacific by June–August after the shift to ENSO-Neutral. Ø     One of the most significant effects of La Niña on India is its influence on the monsoon. Thus, a shift to La Niña may be advantageous for crops reliant on adequate rainfall, thus leading to improved soil moisture levels and better crop yields, potentially boosting agricultural productivity. Monsoon Forecast for 2024                                Fig. 2: March- May 2024 

Rainfall Forecast Feb to 5th March

A fresh Western Disturbance is expected to impact the Western Himalayan Region from this coming weekend (as shown in Fig. 1) and its effect will remain for next 5-6 days causing light to moderate rainfall/snowfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and over Uttarakhand in coming 3-4 days. Light rainfall will also spill over to the adjoining northwestern plains of Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.  14  Feb- 20 Feb                       28 Feb-05 March Fig. 1 Under the influence of an anticyclone over the north Bay of Bengal, moisture is penetrating east-central India from the Bay of Bengal, resulting in moderate rainfall over some areas of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal etc. 2nd Half of February into March looks highly favourable for good precipitation for North western India, North India, central & East central India comprising states of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Biha