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Cyclone "Michaung" may make landfall b/w Andhra Pradesh – North Tamil Nadu coast with highest probability near Nellore

  Image Source: Multi Model Ensemble A Well-marked low-pressure area formed over South-East Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify further into a Depression by today evening. It is predicted to move towards West Northwest direction for next 2 days. This depression is likely to intensify further into a Deep Depression by tomorrow over South-East and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal. There have been 2 different predictions: 1.   As per ECMWF forecast, this system should intensify and move closer to North Tamil Nadu and South AP coast by 02nd December. Hence, it will hit North Chennai as a Deep Depression in coming 2 days and cross coast near South AP and moving northward. If this happens, many areas of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh shall receive extremely heavy rainfall in coming 2-3 days. 2.   Whereas GFS is taking a recurve by passing through the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and taking it to North Bay of Bengal. According to BKC Aggregators,
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Burning Issue: Stubble Fires in Punjab Choking UP and Delhi-NCR

The pollution issue in Delhi-NCR rises every year around October-November. The primary cause of this is farmers in Punjab and Haryana burning their stubble. This year, around 54% high-pitched reduction in stubble burning has been noticed in the country. But in Punjab, recently the number of incidents of stubble burning are rising day by day as the harvesting of paddy is peaking up. The Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB) has reported that more pollution rise is recorded in the state after Dussehra.                As per reports, 589 incidents of stubble burning were reported in Punjab on October 26, the highest number of stubble burning occurrences recorded in a single day. According to sources, this year a total of 6284 instances of stubble burning were recorded in Punjab till October 30. Although there have been lesser instances of stubble burning in the fields this year compared to previous, numerous incidences are still being reported. According to a NASA report, the smoke from P
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“The Wait is Over: Farmers of South India Welcomes Northeast Monsoon”

The dry spell over southern regions like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala especially Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, during post monsoon (southwest) season in October has resulted in decrease of the soil moisture affecting the standing crops as well as upcoming rabi crops. After the twin cyclonic systems over Arabian Sea and BOB had caused in delay of onset of the northeast monsoon, it has finally entered the southern peninsular regions. This is indeed a great relief to the farmers. Let us see how Northeast Monsoon is going to show its effect and Favour the farmers over the regions. (Image source: IMD) Weather Outlook: An upper air Cyclonic Circulation over Comorin Sea is likely to bring widespread rains over southern areas of Tamil Nadu. Additionally, trough in Easterlies likely to reach Tamil Nadu coast in couple of days and Widespread rains are expected likely from Thursday over Coastal Tamil Nadu & Chennai. Kanchipuram, Chennai, Puducherry, Nagapattinam, Ramanathapuram, Vilattikul
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Andhra Pradesh: Farmers awaiting Northeast Monsoon

  This year, Andhra Pradesh has marked 13% deficient rainfall, during the southwest monsoon season with an approximate 454.6mm rainfall from June-September. In October, the state has received only 13.7mm of rainfall compared to the normal 126.9mm, with all 26 districts recording rainfall deficits ranging from 85% to 99%. Only a few districts like Krishna, palnadu and manyam has received isolated rainfall, but still had significant deficiency. The twin cyclonic systems over Arabian Sea and BOB had caused in delay of onset of the northeast monsoon. The dry spell resulted in decrease of the soil moisture effecting the standing crops as well as upcoming rabi crops. Farmers are bothered about the yield of paddy, pulses and other kharif crops, estimating that the yield could be decreased than last year. Fig: Rainfall Forecast Map The first active spell of Northeast monsoon is expected to start from 28 th October and continue till first week of November. Various parts of Coastal AP and Tam
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Coastal AP and Odisha to receive Isolated heavy rains- benefiting Rabi crops

  Fig: Rainfall Forecast Map Rainfall Outlook: Southeast Bay of Bengal is currently under the Cyclonic Circulation over the neighbouring Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal. Over the period of next 48 hours, a low-pressure area is expected to emerge over the central regions of the Bay of Bengal as it moves north-westward. This north-west movement of the CC furtherly with a Low-Pressure-Area could possibly result in a wet weather conditions over Coastal AP and Odisha. There is a good chance of isolated heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning over coastal Odisha, Yanam, and north coastal Andhra Pradesh around 23-24rth October. Coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh like Visakhapatnam, Vizayanagaram, Kakinada, Krishna, Guntur etc., are expected to receive widespread rain around 23-25 October. Regions like Bhubaneshwar, Sambalpur, Balasore etc., are also anticipated to receive heavy rainfall during the period. The Cyclonic System is expected to reach up to Odisha coast and may result
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Would Post Monsoon Showers favours Rabi Farmers?

  Fig: Weather forecast Map.          Weather outlook: The following two days will likely see the Southwest Monsoon withdrawal from more areas of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, and the remaining portions of Telangana, Maharashtra, and the Central Arabia Sea. An east-west oriented trough over the extreme south peninsular and a cyclonic circulation that is associated with it will produce light to moderate rainfall over interior Karnataka around 16 th October. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Kerala-Mahe are also anticipated to experience isolated heavy rainfall along with thunderstorms and lightning from 14-16 October. For the next five days, mild to moderate rain is expected in Northeast India like Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal due to a cyclonic circulation over the region. Snow or light to moderate rainfall along with thunderstorms and lightning is expected over Kashmir-Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad,
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Paddy Farmers under Squeeze

  This year, paddy has been sown in estimated 412 lakh hectares, 2% more than the last year. This is leading to building up of arrival pressure and lower prices. Government’s ban of rice exports and implementation of MEP, has restricted miller purchases.  Exploitation in Fatehabad Mandi: In Fatehabad Mandi, traders and millers are acting unfairly adding up to farmer’s miseries. Ram Jatt Bharati, a member of Kisan Union Kethi Bachao , stated that the millers and dealers of Fatehabad have united and had taken a secret oath ( lota namak kasam ) to buy the paddy only at MSP. In a meeting held on 28 th September at Fatehabad Mandi , an agreement on following points emerged: The paddy which are in pile stocks are to be bought first. Each miller should buy only ten thousand bags of paddy on MSP, in the first term. After every miller gets ten thousand bags, the second term will be started. If any miller buys the paddy at more price than MSP, they will be fined with one lakh rupees. The col
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