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July 2024 Monsoon Report and its effect on crops

 

Monsoon 2024: A Comprehensive Overview

The arrival of the 2024 monsoon season in India has brought optimism and relief after periods of fluctuating rainfall in recent years. According to forecasts by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet, this year’s monsoon is anticipated to be normal, with rainfall likely to reach 106% of the long period average (LPA). This prediction is crucial for the agricultural sector as adequate monsoon rains are essential for the growth of Kharif crops across the country.


IMD Cumulative rainfall information state wise (01-06-2024 to 09-07-2024)


Monsoon Trends and Future Forecast

The current monsoon season shows promise with substantial rainfall recorded across the nation, aligning closely with IMD’s predictions. While some regions have witnessed more intense showers than others, overall, the monsoon is progressing favorably.

Looking ahead, the IMD’s extended range forecasts indicate continued above-normal rainfall for Central India and the South Peninsula, while Northwest India may experience normal rainfall. Northeast India and parts of East and Central India might face below-normal to normal rainfall, necessitating careful monitoring.

The 2024 monsoon season marks a hopeful beginning for India’s agricultural landscape, supporting crucial Kharif crops through adequate water supply. Farmers and policymakers alike are encouraged by the current monsoon trends, which promise to bolster agricultural output and ensure water security across the nation. Continuous updates and insights from meteorological agencies will remain pivotal in navigating the season’s fluctuations and maximizing its benefits for India’s agrarian economy.

Impact on Major Kharif Crops

The timely onset and distribution of rainfall have positively influenced the planting and early growth stages of key Kharif crops across various states:

1. Soybean: States like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have reported on-time sowing, benefiting from sufficient moisture for germination and early growth.

2. Paddy: West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab have seen steady progress in paddy transplantation, thanks to consistent rainfall ensuring adequate water supply.

3. Cotton: Regions in Gujarat and Maharashtra, vital for cotton cultivation, have experienced favorable conditions with adequate soil moisture supporting healthy crop development.

 

 Water Storage Status

As of 04 July 2024, India's reservoirs collectively held 35.299 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) of live storage, which amounts to approximately 69.35% of their total storage capacity. Compared to the previous year, this represents a decrease of 22%, indicating slightly lower water levels this season. Moreover, when compared to the average of the last decade, the current storage levels are notably lower by approximately 30%.

 

 Region-wise Analysis:

1. Northern Region:

   - Current storage: 5.394 BCM (27% of capacity)

   - Comparison with last year: Decreased by 45%

   - Comparison with 10-year average: Below by 31%

2. Eastern Region:

   - Current storage: 3.979 BCM (19% of capacity)

   - Comparison with last year: Decreased by 20%

   - Comparison with 10-year average: Below by 23%

3. Western Region:

   - Current storage: 7.949 BCM (21% of capacity)

   - Comparison with last year: Decreased by 27%

   - Comparison with 10-year average: Below by 22%

4. Central Region:

   - Current storage: 12.255 BCM (25% of capacity)

   - Comparison with last year: Decreased by 35%

   - Comparison with 10-year average: Below by 26%

 

5. Southern Region:

   - Current storage: 10.152 BCM (19% of capacity)

   - Comparison with last year: Decreased by 19.43%

   - Comparison with 10-year average: Below by 24%


CWC Region wise live storage status as on 04.07.2024

 

BKC Aggregators believes that the above monsoon will boost farmers' incomes as rain showers have started at the perfect time, suiting farmers for paddy transplantation. This rain is also beneficial for soybean and cotton farmers as it revives the soil moisture conditions. As seen in the CWC Water storages, the below-normal water levels are expected to rise above normal stages as the monsoon progresses, recharging these water bodies. The major reason for the declining water levels in the reservoirs last year was the La Nina condition, which led to significant low rainfall and agriculture practices depending on these water bodies. The 2024 monsoon looks promising as it covered the entire nation on 2nd July 2024, bringing hope for a bountiful agricultural season.

 

 


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