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Showing posts from April, 2024


India is poised to have a good monsoon this year. It can be seen for the NOAA graph of Fig. 1 below. El Nino conditions are changing to La Nina from May June July. Fig. 1: ENSO Probabilities by NOAA This year, the Southwest Monsoon is anticipated to arrive in extreme parts of South-SE Bay around the first week of May, gradually progressing northward. Seasonal Forecast as given by IRI in Fig. 2 below. Fig. 2: Seasonal Forecast by IRI Regional Outlook: The monsoon season may extend into early October this year. Western and Northwestern India: Above-normal to excess rainfall is possible over most parts of Western and Northwestern India, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. This increased Rains is likely to raise concerns for potential flooding, especially during the peak and late monsoon seasons. Rains are likely to be favorable to all Kharif Crops. Fig. 3: Rainfall forecast by IMD Southern and Southeastern India: While the

Weather Activities likely to change over many areas of North and Central India

Fig. 1 Currently, a western disturbance is forming as a trough around Pakistan, accompanied by the formation of a cyclone in the upper part of northeastern Rajasthan. Additionally, a trough is developing from southeastern Madhya Pradesh to Tamil Nadu. Anti-cyclones are present in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, resulting in western wind direction and moisture influx from both bodies of water. As a result of the current western disturbance, light to moderate rainfall/snowfall is anticipated over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh for the next two days, and Uttarakhand for the next seven days. The weather in Rajasthan is expected to undergo changes for the next 2-3 days due to the influence of the western disturbance. Over the next two days, the western disturbance is expected to progress eastward. Concurrently, a new western disturbance is set to become active, leading to cloud cover over half of Madhya Pradesh region with a possibility of dri