Will El Nino affect Wheat Production in India? - By Dr B K Singh & Purnima Nair

The winter months of December and January have witnessed an unusual absence of strong western disturbances (WDs) over North India. This deficiency, attributed in part to the El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific and a northward shift of the westerly jet stream. It has not rained in Jan 2024 so far.

As of now in wheat producing area of North- Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh, rain deficiencies have ranged 54% to 99%. This deficit, coupled with the absence of snowfall in higher elevations, raises concerns for the health of the Rabi crops, particularly wheat.

Impact on Wheat Cultivation:

The Rabi crop, especially wheat, heavily relies on precipitation during the winter months. The deficiency in rainfall and snowfall may have implications for soil moisture levels, potentially affecting wheat germination and growth. In this current situation, ground water irrigation may offer some protection. What is more disturbing is the absence of active WDs and the resulting dry soil conditions could pose a threat to the overall health of the winter crops.

The observed lower snowfall and increased snowmelt will contribute to water resource stresses, posing challenges for downstream regions later.

Fig. 1

However, a fresh Western Disturbance is likely from January 26-28. It is predicted that this upcoming western disturbance will bring good snowfall/rainfall over the Himalayan region, but with limited impact on the plains. The current low temperatures are good for the heading in wheat crops.

Fig. 2 (Source: Cola Weather)

Currently low temperature is good for the wheat crops. However, it can also be seen from Fig.2 that the temperature of Central India will increase in the month of February. It may induce dry conditions and with low soil moisture could severely affect the crop.

Fig. 3

Additionally, the El Niño conditions are in an active state, gradually decreasing from March, with the possibility of La Niña returning in May 2024. If La Niña returns, it could increase the chance of good monsoon, 2024.

Comments

कृषि क्षेत्र मे महिलाओं का योगदान

आज महिलाएं हर जगह हर क्षेत्र में अव्वल स्थान पर है चाहे वो घर का काम हो या बाहर का काम वह दोनों चीजों में सामंजस्य बैठा के आगे बढ़ रही है और हर चीज़ को अच्छे से संभाल रही है। वह पुरुषों के साथ कदम से कदम मिलाकर चल रही है ऐसा कोई क्षेत्र नहीं जहाँ उन्होंने अपना नाम रोशन न किया हो। बात की जाए कृषि क्षेत्र की , कृषि क्षेत्र में जितना योगदान पुरुषों का है उतना ही योगदान महिलाओं का भी है । भारत की लगभग 70 फीसदी आबादी ग्रामीण इलाकों में रहती है जिनके आय का जरिया खेती से ही निकलता है। घरेलू कार्य के साथ साथ वह खेत का सारा कार्य अच्छे से संभालती है। अनेक कार्य जैसे पौधों को रोपना , बीज लगाना फसलों की कटाई आदि कामों में वह निपुण हैं साथ ही साथ अन्य कार्य जैसे पशुपालन , मुर्गी पालन , मधुमक्खी पालन आदि को भी वे बड़ी बखूबी से निभाती हैं अन्य कार्य जैसे दूध घी एवं दही बनाना , आचार एवं चटनी , पापड़ आदि बनाने से वह आमदनी अंकित कमाती हैं और घर संभालती हैं। आज के समय में वह नई तकनीकों को सीखकर अच्छा पैसा और काम दोनों कमा रही हैं और अपना योगदान कृषि में बखूबी दे रही है । कृषि क्षेत्र में महिलाओ

Maize as Fuel of Future

Ethanol as Fuel Government has set an ambitious target of 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025. This is a significant move to cut down the crude import which contribute to 25% of total import in terms of value in India. As of June this year, the national average for ethanol blending was 13%, an increase from previous year of 12.1% in 2022-23 and 10% in 2021-22. The blending ratios is reaching to nearly 16% by June 2024. What is important to understand that ethanol production in India initially relied predominantly molasses, a by-product of sugar production. The policy shift to include grains as supplementary feedstocks, such as maize and damaged rice, further diversifying the sources of ethanol has very prefound effect on raw material utilization for ethanol production. With government incentivise by setting a higher ex-distillery price of Rs 71.86 per liter for ethanol produced from maize, has led to the establishment of multi-feedstock distilleries, which operate on a mix o

Technology - Advising Farmers and Crop Yield Assesment

Food security in the light of climate change is a global imperative. In developing nations, the problem is exacerbated by variable weather, lack of reliable extension services to optimize yield and fair market access. In India, most farmers do not have access to weather advisory forecasts that are hyper local to their field and timely in nature. As all farming activities are heavily dependent on weather, decisions on application of fertilizers and pesticide, irrigation, and even plucking of fruits & vegetables and harvesting cannot be taken efficiently. In addition, significant crop losses, that are entirely preventable, accrue through adverse weather events. Crop advisory services, where available, are generic and not pegged to a farmer's seed variety, date of sowing, and growing conditions and hence do not dispense timely, actionable advice, directly relevant to a farmer. Likewise, market trends pertinent to their particular crop and location

BKC Aggregators: Transforming Lives, One Farmer at a Time

Search This Blog