Skip to main content

Potential Transition from El Niño to La Niña: Normal Monsoon likely in 2024

Ø  The country is currently experiencing an El Niño period, but in the upcoming months, it is gradually expecting a move towards La Niña. In the coming months, it is anticipated that the present El Niño will settle off and become neutral. (Fig.1)

Fig. 1 (Source: NOAA)
Ø  The next six months could see the emergence of La Niña due to favourable conditions. Initial predictions indicate that by April–June, there is a 79% probability that persistent El Niño conditions would change to ENSO-Neutral. There is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing in the Pacific by June–August after the shift to ENSO-Neutral.
Ø   One of the most significant effects of La Niña on India is its influence on the monsoon. Thus, a shift to La Niña may be advantageous for crops reliant on adequate rainfall, thus leading to improved soil moisture levels and better crop yields, potentially boosting agricultural productivity.

Monsoon Forecast for 2024
    
                       Fig. 2: March- May 2024                                       Fig. 3: April- June 2024

Fig. 4: May- July 2024

The above 3 Figures provide insights into the projected precipitation trends, highlighting the areas expected to experience above, below, and near-normal rainfall during the specified period. The forecast for the upcoming months of March to June 2024 presents notable variations in rainfall patterns across different regions of India compared to historical data.

Ø  March-May 2024: During March to May 2024, chances of departure from usual rainfall is about -40% in East Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh compared to normal, which could be beneficial to spices.

Ø  April-June 2024: Pre-Monsoon will continue to be dry specifically in areas of South Western Gujarat, North Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Coastal Odisha, and Coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Ø  May-July 2024: Figure 4 depicts onset of Monsoon in Southern India which is positive trend for weakening El Nino.

To ensure you stay informed and prepared for the weather conditions for your locality, download Fasal Salah app, which provides a comprehensive 10-day weather forecast tailored to village level. Stay ahead of the weather and plan accordingly with Fasal Salah.

Download Now👉https://goo.gl/5Yu1u9 







Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Maize as Fuel of Future

  Ethanol as Fuel Government has set an ambitious target of 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025. This is a significant move to cut down the crude import which contribute to 25% of total import in terms of value in India. As of June this year, the national average for ethanol blending was 13%, an increase from previous year of 12.1% in 2022-23 and 10% in 2021-22. The blending ratios is reaching to nearly 16% by June 2024. What is important to understand that ethanol production in India initially relied predominantly molasses, a by-product of sugar production. The policy shift to include grains as supplementary feedstocks, such as maize and damaged rice, further diversifying the sources of ethanol has very prefound effect on raw material utilization for ethanol production. With government incentivise by setting a higher ex-distillery price of Rs 71.86 per liter for ethanol produced from maize, has led to the establishment of multi-feedstock distilleries, which operate on a m...
2 comments
Read more

Technology - Advising Farmers and Crop Yield Assesment

Food security in the light of climate change is a global imperative. In developing nations, the problem is exacerbated by variable weather, lack of reliable extension services to optimize yield and fair market access. In India, most farmers do not have access to weather advisory forecasts that are hyper local to their field and timely in nature. As all farming activities are heavily dependent on weather, decisions on application of fertilizers and pesticide, irrigation, and even plucking of fruits & vegetables and harvesting cannot be taken efficiently. In addition, significant crop losses, that are entirely preventable, accrue through adverse weather events. Crop advisory services, where available, are generic and not pegged to a farmer's seed variety, date of sowing, and growing conditions and hence do not dispense timely, actionable advice, directly relevant to a farmer. Likewise, market trends pertinent to their particular crop and location ...
39 comments
Read more

MONSOON 2024

India is poised to have a good monsoon this year. It can be seen for the NOAA graph of Fig. 1 below. El Nino conditions are changing to La Nina from May June July. Fig. 1: ENSO Probabilities by NOAA This year, the Southwest Monsoon is anticipated to arrive in extreme parts of South-SE Bay around the first week of May, gradually progressing northward. Seasonal Forecast as given by IRI in Fig. 2 below. Fig. 2: Seasonal Forecast by IRI Regional Outlook: The monsoon season may extend into early October this year. Western and Northwestern India: Above-normal to excess rainfall is possible over most parts of Western and Northwestern India, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. This increased Rains is likely to raise concerns for potential flooding, especially during the peak and late monsoon seasons. Rains are likely to be favorable to all Kharif Crops. Fig. 3: Rainfall forecast by IMD Southern and Southeastern India: While the ...
Post a Comment
Read more