Status of Cotton Crop 2021: A Case Study in Gujarat

 Introduction:

BKC Aggregators has been working in area of weather-focused advisories to the farmers through an app named FASAL SALAH. Through this app, Farmers get advisories based on variety sown, date of sowing and weather forecast of their village. Farmers also send their crop pictures as prescribed. This App uses artificial intelligence for image processing of farmers sent pictures and crop modelling analytics, which BKC has established for calculation of yield and health of the crop well before the harvest. The service has been in successful operations with a large number of farmers.

FASAL SALAH App, Our Crop monitoring technology is unique using bottoms up approach at field level and correlating ground realities with real-time crop vegetation index monitored via spectral analysis of high-resolution satellite images for different fields and crops. This enables to track positive and negative dynamics of crop development much more realistically.

This way it is more realistic way of crop yield estimation before actual harvest. Our technology has been field tested and awarded by Govt. of India (Winner of Great Agriculture Challenge 2019). 

In Kharif season 2021-22, FASAL SALAH team carried out a study of crops grown districts of Gujarat. Idea was to look at the crop health by using the crop pictures sent by the farmers through FASAL SALAH App and satellite pictures, which later helps us to determine the crop yield.

 About:

The State of Gujarat lies between 20°1’and 24°7’ N latitude and 68°4’ and 74°4’ E longitude. Its area is 19.6 m ha making for 6% of India’s geographical area. The population of Gujarat in 2001was 5,05,96,992 comprising 2,63,44,053 males and 2,42,52,939 females. It formed 4.93% of India’s population. Compared to the national average of 72.22%, only 62.65% of Gujarat’s population lived in villages. 

Population density in the State was 258/km2. Central and Southern plains of Gujarat were the most density populated while Kutch had the lowest (34/km2) density. The ultimate irrigation potential is estimated at 6.5 million hectare (m ha); 2.55 m.ha of ground water and the rest is surface water. About 55% of the irrigation potential has been harnessed.

About 80% the ground water resources are already utilized and future expansion of irrigated area will be mostly through the use of surface water. Rice and wheat use up about one third of irrigation water even though the performance of these two crops is not good in the State. More judicious use of irrigation resources can enhance the State’s returns from agriculture.

Agro and Sub Agro-Climatic Zones:

Gujarat lies in the Agro Climatic Zone-XIII, which is called as “Gujarat Plains and Hills region”/ Traditionally Gujarat was divided into three regions, viz. (i) the main land plains extending from the Rann of Kutch and the Aravalli hills in the North to Damanganga in the South, (ii) the hilly peninsular region of Saurashtra and the rocky areas of Kutch and (iii) the North-eastern hill tract.

Holdings:

The net cropped area has varied from 9.60 million hectare to 9.67 million hectare during the last 10 years. This is a little over 49% of the total area of Gujarat. Cropping intensity varies according to rainfall and it has been about 105% in the recent years. There were 35,32,000 agricultural holdings in 1990–91. This number increased to 37,81,000 in 1995–96 and the average size of operational holding reduced from 2.93 ha to 2.62 ha in the same period. About 55% of the holdings fell under marginal and small size group in 1995–96, against 78% at the national level. Average size of holding was 86% larger than the national average.

Cropping Pattern:

The main crops grown in Kharif season are Great Millet, Bajra, Maize, Paddy, Groundnut and in Rabi season these are Cotton, Wheat, Mustard, Cumin and Vegetables. Besides, Sugarcane is also grown in some districts. While the performance of rice, wheat, pulses and cotton in Gujarat is below the national average, the performance is above the national average for coarse cereals, oils seeds and onion. Although potato is not a major crop, its yields in Gujarat are high. The State finds a place among the top 3 in terms of productivity of bajra, groundnut, sesame, rapeseed and mustard, castor, onion, banana, chikoo, guava, cauliflower and tobacco.

Weather Outlook:

                 Indian Summery and Weather Forecast

•  Southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw further from some more parts of northwest India and some parts of central India.  
• A Low Pressure are is likely to form over the southwest Bay of Bengal in the beginning of week 2. 
• Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity very likely over south Peninsular & adjoining central India and east & northeast India during most of the days. 
• Overall above normal rainfall activity is likely over central & east India and normal to above normal over northwest, south Peninsular, and northeast India.
•  The remnants of Cyclone Gulab now lie over a marked low-pressure area along with central Gujarat and north Madhya Maharashtra. It is also manifesting as a cyclonic circulation up to the middle troposphere level. Most parts of North Konkan (including Mumbai), North Madhya Maharashtra, South Gujarat (including Surat) and Saurashtra have received heavy rains during the last 24 hours.
• Heavy rain with strong winds forecast for South Gujarat, Saurashtra, and Kutch, rough sea conditions along the coast for next 48 hours. Deep depression and a storm is forming which will move westwards, reaching the border area of ​​Iran parallel to the coast of Pakistan.
• Heavy to very heavy rain with gusty winds very likely over south & southwest parts of Pakistan along the coast between 01 to 04 October. No intense weather activity is expected over Gujarat for at least next one week from 02^nd   October.

·         Major Cotton growing areas like Jamnagar district showing deficient of rainfall in last year However, Amreli and Bhavnagar showing excess of rainfall whereas Rajkot and Surendranagar districts showing near normal rainfall.

·         During the forecasting of the rainfall in the month of October 2021 Jamnagar district showing excess of rainfall while rest of the major cotton growing district showing normal.

Vegetation condition index (VCI):

VCI is used to identify drought situations and determine the onset, especially in areas where drought episodes are localized and ill defined. It focuses on the impact of drought on vegetation and can provide information on the onset, duration and severity of drought by noting vegetation changes and comparing them with historical values. VCI value is being measured in percentage ranging from 1 to 100. The range between 50% and 100% indicates above normal condition of vegetation whereas the values ranging from 50% to 35% indicate the drought condition and below 35% indicates severe drought condition.

·         Based on Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Gujarat state showing normal condition in whole western and eastern side while, Kachchh district showing near drought condition in the month of September 2021.

Standardized precipitation index (SPI):

 The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir storage. The SPI can be compared across regions with markedly different climates. It quantifies observed precipitation as a standardized departure from a selected probability distribution function that models the raw precipitation data. The raw precipitation data are typically fitted to a gamma or a Pearson Type III distribution, and then transformed to a normal distribution. The SPI values can be interpreted as the number of standard deviations by which the observed anomaly deviates from the long-term mean.

The SPI values for any given location and accumulation period, are classified into seven different precipitation regimes (from dry to wet), as shown in Table. As can be seen, increasingly severe rainfall deficits (i.e., meteorological droughts) are indicated as SPI decreases below ‒1.0, while increasingly severe excess rainfall is indicated as SPI increases above 1.0.

·         Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) shows near drought condition in majority of the district on compare with the normal during the first fortnight of September 2021.

·         Normal of rainfall in current year the index showing near unfavorable condition.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):

·         NDVI depicts slightly down in throughout the state with respect to the previous year and normal year during the first fortnight of Sep 2021.

 

  ·         NDVI values in the current year is lower than the previous year in the 1st fortnight the month of September in major tehsils. While, it is higher in Dhari, Jafarabad, Khambha, Kundla and Dhari to the normal.

·         NDVI depicts lower values in all over the state when compared to that of previous year except for Valabhipur tehsils and compared with the normal NDVI so all over the state showing deficient values during the Sep 2021. 

·         NDVI values in the current year is lower than the previous year and normal in the 1st fortnight the month of September in all over the districts.

 

·         NDVI values in the current year is lower than the previous year and normal in the 1st fortnight the month of September in all over the districts.

 

·         Crop condition in all over the tehsils showing lagging behind compared with the previous year and to the normal during the first fortnight of September 2021.

Soil moisture:

 

·         Soil moisture value seems to have decreased gradually during the first fortnight of September on compared with previous year in 2021.

·         Soil moisture in the 1^st fortnight September displays a picture of unhealthy moisture content throughout the state as compared to the normal.

·         Deficit moisture content is witnessed in Amreli district during the 1st half of the September month with respect to the previous year and normal 2021. 

·         Bhavnagar depicts low moisture content in the current year in all over the tehsils with respect to the previous year and normal 2021.

·         Deficit moisture content is witnessed in Jamnagar district during the 1st half of the September month with respect to the previous year and normal 2021.

·         In the first fortnight of September all over the Rajkot district showing deficient moisture content in year of 2021 compared with the previous year and to the normal.

·         Soil moisture value is comparatively lower in the district with respect to the previous year and normal on compared with the previous year and to the normal 2021.

Crop Acreage:

 ·         Cotton is the major crop of Amreli district during the Kharif season 2021 followed by crop acreage area of 363024  hectares.

 

·         Cotton is the major crop of Bhavnagar district during the Kharif season 2021 followed with crop acreage area of 190352 hectares.

 

·         Cotton is the major crop of Jamnagar district during the Kharif season 2021 followed with crop acreage area of 183616 hectares.

·         Cotton is the major crop of Rajkot district during the Kharif season 2021 followed with crop acreage area of 208760 hectares.

·         Cotton is the major crop of Surendranagar district during the Kharif season 2021 followed with crop acreage area of 320201 hectares.

Farmers Feedbacks

We at BKC Aggregators run an App called FASAL SALAH that connects us with lacs of farmers on one-to-one basis. We provide to the farmers weather linked advisories based on his soil, his variety, date of sowing using artificial intelligence Farmers also send their drop pictures for us to run ML programs to improve advisories further.

 A farmer Gangadiya mansukh bhai from Morthala village of Surendra Nagar district has reported that vegetative growth of cotton was initially slow but after spells of rain flowering phase is quite better. But this is not something unusual. Similar kind of situation happens every year, said Mansukhbhai. Last year Mansukhbhai has cultivated cotton in 4 acres and this year he increased it to 5 acres. 

Another young farmer from Gingni village of Jamnagar, Gujarat named Kalpesh has cultivated BT cotton in 5 acres. Growth of cotton is quite normal. Midway it was affected with a few diseases and pests. But after spray of pesticides health condition of crop improved. Already picking is started.

Conclusion:

• On the basis of NDVI crop health condition of Gujarat State depicts lagging behind condition during the first fortnight of September 2021.
• Crop helath condition in major cotton growing districts Amreli, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Rajkot and Surendranagar showing unfavorable condition as compared with the previous year and normal 2021.
• Based on Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Rajasthan state showing normal condition in whole westerns and eastern side while, Kutch district showing near drought condition during the month of Sep 2021.
• Standarized Precepitation Index (SPI) in districts of Gujarat depicts lagging behind compared with the last 5 year normal.
• Actual weather condition in Gujarat state majority districts showing near normal condition, While when we see in forecast of the state so all over the state showing normal condition.
• In Gujarat state, current year the moisture condition was slightly inferior compared to the previous year and to the normal  and the same scenario can be seen in major cotton growing districts.
• Crop acreage of major cotton growing districts Amreli, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Rajkot and Surendranagar showing less crop area compared with the year of 2018-19.
  
• For 2021-22, the above mentioned cotton area in Gujarat is exemined  by BKC Aggregators ‘ team through FASAL SALAH App.