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STATUS OF MAIZE 2021-22 CHHINDWARA (M.P.)

Introduction:

BKC Aggregators has been working in area of weather-focused advisories to the farmers through an app named FASAL SALAH. Through this app, Farmers get advisories based on variety sown, date of sowing and weather forecast of their village. Farmers also send their crop pictures as prescribed. This App uses artificial intelligence for image processing of farmers sent pictures and crop modelling analytics, which BKC has established for calculation of yield and health of the crop well before the harvest. The service has been in successful operations with a large number of farmers.

FASAL SALAH App, Our Crop monitoring technology is unique using bottoms up approach at field level and correlating ground realities with real-time crop vegetation index monitored via spectral analysis of high-resolution satellite images for different fields and crops. This enables to track positive and negative dynamics of crop development much more realistically.

This way it is more realistic way of crop yield estimation before actual harvest. Our technology has been field tested and awarded by Govt. of India (Winner of Great Agriculture Challenge 2019). 

 In Kharif season 2021-22, FASAL SALAH team carried out a study of crops grown in Chhindwara district of Madhya Pradesh. Maize is the major crop of the district. Idea was to look at the crop health by using the crop pictures sent by the farmers through FASAL SALAH App and satellite pictures, which later helps us to determine the crop yield.  

 About:

The maize is cultivated throughout the year in all states of the country for various purposes including grain, fodder, green cobs, sweet corn, baby corn, popcorn in peri-urban areas. In India, maize is the third most important food crops after rice and wheat. According to advance estimate, its production is likely to be 22.23 M Tonnes (2012-13) mainly during Kharif season which covers 80% area. Maize in India, contributes nearly 9 % in the national food basket.

The predominant maize growing states that contributes more than 80 % of the total maize production are Andhra Pradesh (20.9 %), Karnataka (16.5 %), Rajasthan (9.9 %), Maharashtra (9.1 %), Bihar (8.9 %), Uttar Pradesh (6.1 %), Madhya Pradesh (5.7 %), Himachal Pradesh (4.4 %).

  • The district lies at the 24° 06' to 25° 20' N and 78° 59' to 80° 26' E covering an area of 110 km2, according to the 2011 census Chhindwara district has a population of 2.6 lakh.
  • Chhindwara falls under Central Plateau and Hills Region (VIII) with an annual rainfall of 1095.1 mm with the South West Monsoon supply.
  • The net sown area is 319.9 thousand hectares and gross cropped area is 40.7 thousand hectares with cropping intensity of 127%.
  • The district has a wide variety of crops grown where major Kharif crop in the region is Maize.      

Weather Outlook:

Indian Summery and Weather Forecast

·         The western end of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs to the north of its normal position while its eastern end runs close to the normal position.

·         Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Jammu &      Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh till    29th July, 2021 and reduction thereafter.

·         Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely to continue over East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on 28th July.

·   In MP, undertake sowing of soybean crop only after ensuring sufficient moisture for field emergence. Undertake transplanting of brinjal and chilli in raised bed. To control attack of mite and jassids in chilli, spray Fosmite.

·         Light to moderate rain with one or two intense spells may occur over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Chhattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Konkan and Goa.


Rainfall Forecast (29 July to 04 August, 2021):

·         The monsoon trough is very likely to be north of its normal position during most days of the week. Hence rainfall activity is very likely to be confined to the northern parts of the country during this week.

·          Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to heavy falls very likely over northeast & adjoining east India during most days of the week.

·         Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely over Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains of northwest India and Uttar Pradesh during most days of the week.

·         Overall, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over Western Himalayan Region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states.

·         Major maize growing areas showing only 14 to 19 mm accumulated rainfall in last 15 days, However Amarwara and Parsia showing near normal condition.

·         As we see the previous effect in majority of the tehsils, there is a possibility of heavy rain at Parsia and Amarwara tehsils, whereas Sausar tehsils continue showing less rainfall compared to other tehsils in the next 15 days.


Vegetation condition index (VCI):

 VCI is used to identify drought situations and determine the onset, especially in areas where drought episodes are localized and ill-defined. It focuses on the impact of drought on vegetation and can provide information on the onset, duration, and severity of drought by noting vegetation changes and comparing them with historical values. VCI value is being measured in a percentage ranging from 1 to 100. The range between 50% and 100% indicates above normal condition of vegetation whereas the values ranging from 50% to 35% indicate the drought condition and below 35% indicates severe drought condition.



·         Based on Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Chhindwara district showing near normal condition while some parts of Amarwara tehsil showing deficit condition compared with other tehsils during the first fortnight of July.

Standardized precipitation index (SPI):

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir storage. The SPI can be compared across regions with markedly different climates. It quantifies observed precipitation as a standardized departure from a selected probability distribution function that models the raw precipitation data. The raw precipitation data are typically fitted to gamma or a Pearson Type III distribution, and then transformed to a normal distribution. The SPI values can be interpreted as the number of standard deviations by which the observed anomaly deviates from the long-term mean.

The SPI values for any given location and accumulation period, are classified into seven different precipitation regimes (from dry to wet), as shown in Table. As can be seen, increasingly severe rainfall deficits (i.e., meteorological droughts) are indicated as SPI decreases below 1.0, while increasingly severe excess rainfall is indicated as SPI increases above 1.0.


·  Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) shows normal condition in the current year on comparison of normal years, however Chhindwara and Sausar tehsils showing near normal condition during the month of July 2021. 

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):

·         NDVI values in the current year are lower than the previous year in the 2nd half of the month June in the major tehsil. While it is higher in all the tehsils as compared to the normal.

·         NDVI value remains short of the previous year in the first fortnights of July and depicts leading the compared with the normal.

Soil moisture:


 
·         Soil moisture value seems to have increased gradually during the second fortnight of June on compared with the previous year and normal 2021.

·         Slightly lower soil moisture values are witnessed in comparison to the previous year and the normal all through Chhindwara district during the 1st fortnight of July 2021. 

Farmers Feedbacks: 

We at BKC Aggregators run an App called FASAL SALAH connects us with lacs of farmers on a one-to-one basis. We provide to the farmers' weather linked advisories based on his soil, his variety, date of sowing using artificial intelligence Farmers also send their drop pictures for us to run ML programs to improve advisories further.

Pradeep Raghuwanshi, a farmer at FASAL SALAH from Chaurai tehsil of Chhindwara district in Madhya Pradesh reported that the maize crop in his field has attained optimum growth and the condition is quite good. He has sown in 10 acres of area and it is comparatively lower than previous years.

Another farmer Vilas Kumar from Chhindwara reported that he has sown maize in 4 acres of land instead of 5 acres, which he used to block for maize. This year, he shifted to moong and soybean crops in the hope of a better price as compared to maize crop. 


Rakesh sanodiya, a large-scale farmer from Chhindwara district has cultivated maize in 18 acres but he used to sow in 20 acres in previous years. According to him, Vegetative growth is quite good and there is no such critical issues apart from slight yellowing. Rain in the month of July is normal and there is no adverse effect on the crop.

Yogesh, a young farmer from Chhindwara told that he is happy with the growth of his maize crop, which he has cultivated on 8 acres. On asking he told that in the year 2020 he cultivated maize in nearly 10 acres of land. Moisture availability is good and there is no incidence of any pest reported till date. 

Conclusion:

  • On the basis of NDVI crop health condition of Chhindwara district depicts near normal condition, if compared with last year and normal at about this time.
  • NDVI portrays better crop condition in comparison to the previous year and normal during the first fortnight of July in Chhindwara district.
  • On the basis of Vegetation condition of index (VCI) and Standarized Precepitation Index (SPI) in Chhindwara district showing normal condition and no major drought showing in till month of July 2021.
  • If we see on actual rainfall condition so patchy rainfall occur in last 15 days, while in upcoming days district showing above or near normal condition.
  • Chhindwara district last year the moisture the condition was slightly inferior but this year majority of tehsil appears to be in better condition, in comparison to Previous year and Normal conditions during the second fortnight of June 2021.
  • Soil moisture conditions in the current year are comparatively slightly less than that of the previous year as well as normal in all the tehsils of Chhindwara district during the 1st fortnight of July.
  • Last year the maize acreage in the Chhindwara district was 352741 ha. As per farmers feedbacks from Chhindwara district, maize area might go lower than the area of the previous year. 

Comments

  1. Yield of maize not mention in the article....so it is not possible to comment as how the crop has performed.

    ReplyDelete

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