Skip to main content

Monsoon Withdrawal Delayed?

 

v  Current weather phenomenon

The monsoon trough lies to the south of its normal position. Its eastern end is very likely to remain to the south of its normal position till 17th September, 2020. An east-west shear zone runs roughly along Latitude 15°N between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. It is likely to persist during next 2 days.



v  No indication as yet of monsoon withdrawal from north-west India. Another low-pressure area is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal around September 17; monsoon forecast need to be assessing further to be certain. Monsoon withdrawal can begin only once anti-cyclonic flow is established and moisture reduces significantly over the region.  

v  The Southwest monsoon stuck deviating significantly from the geographic distribution

Normally, the withdrawal of monsoon is supposed to begin from September 17 when rains begin to reduce across the country until completely withdrawing on October 15. But this year monsoon range extended, forecast shows extensive and heavy rains along the west coast between September 11 and 24 and then until October 1 over several parts of central India.

v  Monsoon overall scenario

The month of June started on the extremely wet note and finished with a surplus of 18%, the best performance in the last 7 years. Peninsular India has recorded 26.3% excess rain this monsoon since June 1 and 78.6% excess rain in September (till September 14). It is expecting more rain due to a well-marked low-pressure area that has developed over the Bay of Bengal. Northwest India has seen 13.5% lower rainfall since June 1.  However, there are parts within this region that have done worse. 

west Uttar Pradesh has seen 30% lower rains; Himachal Pradesh, 18% lower; Uttarakhand, 15% lower; Jammu and Kashmir 27% lower; and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, 6% lower. Rainfall that is between -20% and -59% of the average is termed deficient. West Rajasthan, also in the same region has seen a 30% surplus. North-western region is unlikely to record heavy rain between now and the end of the monsoon. The month of June, July, and August put together have a normal rainfall of 710.5mm (June 166.9 mm, July 285.3 mm, and August 258.3 mm). September holds the key to the overall seasonal performance.

This monsoon has been characterized by several unique features , such as no low-pressure areas forming in July, resulting in the monsoon trough (line of low pressure) oscillating to the Himalayan foothills very frequently bringing rains mainly to the peninsular region and northeast India in July while leaving northwest India dry. Five low pressure systems formed in August which brought excess rains to the central and western region but not much to the north-western region again. Even in this scenario, the Monsoon 2020 is heading towards ‘Above Normal’ status with an outside chance to repeat the performance of 2019 and reach near 110%.

 

v  Five days nationwide forecast

Due to the current existence weather conditions extensive rain in the North East due to the hot & humid southwesterly winds will continue until Thursday.  Rain areas due to low pressure and the monsoon trough will be limited to Maharashtra also the Malabar Coast & southern part of the Konkan Coast, respectively. In addition, heavy rains are possible over the Malabar Coast & southern part of the Konkan Coast on Saturday.
  

16 September (Day 1): Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra and North-east India. heavy rainfall at isolated places over southwest Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Coastal & North Interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamilnadu. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh and isolated places of Madhya Pradesh.

 

17 September (Day 2): Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over southwest Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Maharashtra and thunderstorm accompanied with lightning expected at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh.




18 September (Day 3):  Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Heavy rainfall at isolated places over southeast Rajasthan, southwest Madhya Pradesh, North-eastern states Gujarat State, Madhya Maharashtra,Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Interior Karnataka. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha.

 


19 September (Day 4):  Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated places Coastal Karnataka and, Kerala and heavy rainfall at isolated places over southeast Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, northeast India, Andhra Pradesh and Interior Karnataka. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.



 

20 September (Day 5):  Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka ,Kerala and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gujarat. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

 

  


  

 

Forecast for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day 

For more details kindly visit www.weathersysbkc.com or contact: info@weathersysbkc.com.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

कृषि क्षेत्र मे महिलाओं का योगदान

  आज महिलाएं हर जगह हर क्षेत्र में अव्वल स्थान पर है चाहे वो घर का काम हो या बाहर का काम वह दोनों चीजों में सामंजस्य बैठा के आगे बढ़ रही है और हर चीज़ को अच्छे से संभाल रही है। वह पुरुषों के साथ कदम से कदम मिलाकर चल रही है ऐसा कोई क्षेत्र नहीं जहाँ उन्होंने अपना नाम रोशन न किया हो। बात की जाए कृषि क्षेत्र की , कृषि क्षेत्र में जितना योगदान पुरुषों का है उतना ही योगदान महिलाओं का भी है ।   भारत की लगभग 70 फीसदी आबादी ग्रामीण इलाकों में रहती है जिनके आय का जरिया खेती से ही निकलता है। घरेलू कार्य के साथ साथ वह खेत का सारा कार्य अच्छे से संभालती है। अनेक कार्य जैसे पौधों को रोपना , बीज लगाना फसलों की कटाई आदि कामों में वह निपुण हैं साथ ही साथ अन्य कार्य जैसे पशुपालन , मुर्गी पालन , मधुमक्खी पालन आदि को भी वे बड़ी बखूबी से निभाती हैं अन्य कार्य जैसे दूध घी एवं दही बनाना , आचार एवं चटनी , पापड़ आदि बनाने से वह आमदनी अंकित कमाती हैं और घर संभालती हैं। आज के समय में वह नई तकनीकों को सीखकर अच्छा पैसा और काम दोनों कमा रही हैं और अपना योगदान कृषि में बखूबी दे रही है । कृषि क्षेत्र में महिलाओ

Technology - Advising Farmers and Crop Yield Assesment

Food security in the light of climate change is a global imperative. In developing nations, the problem is exacerbated by variable weather, lack of reliable extension services to optimize yield and fair market access. In India, most farmers do not have access to weather advisory forecasts that are hyper local to their field and timely in nature. As all farming activities are heavily dependent on weather, decisions on application of fertilizers and pesticide, irrigation, and even plucking of fruits & vegetables and harvesting cannot be taken efficiently. In addition, significant crop losses, that are entirely preventable, accrue through adverse weather events. Crop advisory services, where available, are generic and not pegged to a farmer's seed variety, date of sowing, and growing conditions and hence do not dispense timely, actionable advice, directly relevant to a farmer. Likewise, market trends pertinent to their particular crop and location

LOWER POTATO PRODUCTION EXPECTED THIS YEAR IN NORTH INDIA: Inclement Weather in most growing areas be responsible

Potatoes are the most staple diet of India. It is grown in abundance in northern India. Being a staple diet, it is the most grown vegetable in India. The best season to grow potatoes is between October and December.  This year could witness sharp fall in production of Potatoes and prices could remain firm through the season. 2 Major Factors are; Factor1: Low temperatures Winter of 2021-22 has been very harsh in North India for long stretches.  Comparison minimum of temperatures for last 7 years which represents major producing districts can be seen from chart below: Temperatures in 2021-22 have persistently be lower than that of corresponding period in 2020-21 An Ideal temperature for growing potatoes is between 18 and 25 degrees Celsius. Anything lower or higher than this range means the potato growth gets affected. When temperatures drop drastically the potato grows at a slower rate. And this happens due to lower oxidation levels which invariably leads to lessened tubular growth. F