La Niña's Icy Grip: Experts Warn of Bitter Winter for north and warm winter for south

As we move into the final quarter of 2025, climatic signals are pointing to a significant seasonal shift for India. According to the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecasts, there is an increasing probability of La Niña conditions developing in the coming months. Current estimates indicate a 55% chance of La Niña formation, rising to 60% by October–December. Likely probability of El Niño returning later in December.
This change in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase holds important implications for India's weather, particularly in the context of rainfall and temperatures. Let’s break down what this means for India in the coming months.

Source: International Research Institute For Climate and Society

Temperature Forecast:

Source: International Research Institute For Climate and Society

Northern and Central India: These regions are expected to experience significantly lower temperature. In Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra could face below-normal temperatures.
The forecast suggests that the probability of above-normal temperatures for India Eastern coastal region of India from West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

Rainfall Forecast:

Source: International Research Institute For Climate and Society

North India: Punjab, Haryana, Delhi Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand may experience normal rainfall for winter.

Western and Southern India: Gujarat, Maharashtra, and much of peninsular India (including Karnataka and Kerala) show a 40-50 % chance for above normal rainfall.

Parts of Central India: Some areas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh show a 40-50 % chance for above normal rainfall.

Northeast India: Assam, Meghalaya, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh show a moderate probability (around 40%) for above normal rainfall.

Eastern Coastal Belt: Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh also show a slight tilt toward wetter conditions.

Disclaimer: The whole calculation could be upset by unseasonal rains on account of cyclones in Bay of Bengal.

We do not expect any major impact of lower temperature in general for Indian agriculture. As monsoon withdraw after harvest of paddy, soybean, and cotton, excessive soil moisture in North India may delay rabi sowing. Harsh winter actually help the crop during grain formation leading to better harvest of wheat.

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