Heatwaves, Humidity, and Relief: What to Expect from India’s 2025 Summer

May-Jul 2025 Seasonal Temperature forecast issued April 2025

Northern India Faces High Heat Risk Ahead of Monsoon

A high heat alert has been issued for key northern states — Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar — with temperatures forecasted to rise well above normal. Weather models suggest a very high likelihood of extreme heat, especially in June, signaling the possibility of a prolonged and intense heatwave across the region.

Central India to Experience Mixed Summer Conditions

States like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are expected to see variable summer temperatures, according to the latest forecast. The region shows a moderate probability of above-normal heat, suggesting that while some areas may experience typical seasonal temperatures, others could face warmer-than-usual conditions.

Southern India to Stay Warm, But Extreme Heat Unlikely

Southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and parts of Karnataka are expected to experience above-average temperatures, but the heat is likely to be less intense compared to northern regions. While warm conditions will persist, the risk of severe heatwaves remains relatively low.

Western Coast and Central Peninsula May See Slightly Cooler Conditions

Forecasts indicate that regions along the western coast, including parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and nearby central areas, have a lower probability of extreme heat. These areas may experience near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures in certain localized pockets, offering some relief compared to other parts of the country.

Eastern and Northeastern India Brace for Hot and Humid Summer

The eastern corridor, including Odisha, West Bengal, and the Northeastern states, is expected to face a hot and humid summer, as forecast maps highlight a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the region. The combination of heat and humidity may impact agricultural activities and increase water demand, especially during peak summer months.

2025 Monsoon Expected to Be Influenced by Neutral ENSO Conditions

India is likely to experience ENSO-neutral conditions during the 2025 monsoon season, as per the latest climate model assessments. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña patterns—both key drivers of monsoon variability—are expected to dominate this year.

The recent La Niña phase was brief and weak, and its influence is now fading. At the same time, the development of El Niño conditions has been ruled out. With both climate extremes absent, the monsoon is expected to be shaped by neutral ENSO conditions, which typically support a more stable and near-normal monsoon season across the country.

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