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Monsoon 2024: A Slow Start but Promising Outlook

 

Monsoon 2024 has finally arrived, the progress is a bit slow, with cumulative shortfall of 8.7% so far. However, the overall monsoon is expected to be as predicted, with 106% of the LPA. This year's monsoon follows a challenging 2023 season, which witnessed El Niño conditions.

The transition to La Niña conditions is underway, suggesting that normal to above-normal rainfall could be expected but changeover will be irregular.

Regional Rainfall Predictions

To provide a comprehensive understanding of the expected rainfall distribution and its impact, please refer to three graph below, detailing the rainfall predictions from June to October 2024.

                 

Prediction for Jun/July/Aug

            

Prediction for July/Aug/Sept

                      

                                                                 Prediction for Aug/Sept/Oct


Reservoir Status and Water Management

Reservoir levels are currently low, particularly in the southern region. According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), the total live storage available in 150 major reservoirs across India is 39.765 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is 22% of the total live storage capacity. This is significantly lower than the 50.549 BCM available during the same period last year and the ten-year average of 42.727 BCM.

Major concern is in south India, current storage is only 13% of capacity. However, with the predicted above-normal rainfalls, reservoir levels are expected to recover to respectable levels in forthcoming months.

Monsoon and Crops

These predictions could change subsequently as monsoon advances further. From these predictions it is expected that paddy will face challenges during transplantation in M.P, Eastern U.P, Orissa, parts of West Bengal and Chhattisgarh. Cotton, groundnut will remain unaffected and one could expect good crop. Soybean however, could face problem as monsoon looks uncertain in M.P.

 


B.K.C Weathersys Pvt Ltd.

 












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