Monsoon
2024 has finally arrived, the progress is a bit slow, with cumulative shortfall
of 8.7% so far. However, the overall monsoon is expected to be as predicted,
with 106% of the LPA. This year's monsoon follows a challenging 2023 season,
which witnessed El Niño conditions.
The
transition to La Niña conditions is underway, suggesting that normal to
above-normal rainfall could be expected but changeover will be irregular.
Regional
Rainfall Predictions
To provide a comprehensive understanding of the
expected rainfall distribution and its impact, please refer to three graph
below, detailing the rainfall predictions from June to October 2024.
Prediction for Jun/July/Aug
Prediction for July/Aug/Sept
Prediction for Aug/Sept/Oct
Reservoir
Status and Water Management
Reservoir
levels are currently low, particularly in the southern region. According to the
Central Water Commission (CWC), the total live storage available in 150 major
reservoirs across India is 39.765 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is 22% of
the total live storage capacity. This is significantly lower than the 50.549
BCM available during the same period last year and the ten-year average of
42.727 BCM.
Major
concern is in south India, current storage is only 13% of capacity. However,
with the predicted above-normal rainfalls, reservoir levels are expected to
recover to respectable levels in forthcoming months.
Monsoon and Crops
These predictions
could change subsequently as monsoon advances further. From these predictions
it is expected that paddy will face challenges during transplantation in M.P,
Eastern U.P, Orissa, parts of West Bengal and Chhattisgarh. Cotton, groundnut
will remain unaffected and one could expect good crop. Soybean however, could
face problem as monsoon looks uncertain in M.P.
B.K.C
Weathersys Pvt Ltd.
Comments
Post a Comment