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Heavy Rains Ahead: Pulse Crops in South India Face Stormy Challenges

Fig. 1: Rain Activities over many regions of Tamil Nadu

Current Situation

A cyclonic circulation persisting over South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka. This system is moving eastwards, expected to form a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions of South Tamil Nadu and North Sri Lanka within the next 24-48 hours.

Forecast and Developments

Cyclonic Activity:

  • The low-pressure area is likely to intensify into a depression within the next 1-2 days and potentially strengthen into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal.
  • It may reach the northwest Bay of Bengal near the Odisha coast as a severe cyclonic storm in the next 4-5 days. Landfall is projected between Srikakulam (Andhra Pradesh) and Ganga Sagar (West Bengal), near the central Odisha coast, likely as a severe or very severe cyclonic storm. 

Rainfall:

  • South India: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the Kerala Ghats of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, south Tamil Nadu, and west and central Tamil Nadu due to the cyclonic circulation.
  • Widespread Heavy Rains: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka are likely to experience widespread heavy rains.
  • Eastern India: Odisha, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, and Jharkhand are expected to receive light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over the next 3-4 days.
  • North India: Due to a Western Disturbance, Light rainfall is anticipated over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, and Himachal Pradesh during next two days.

Temperature:

  • Maximum temperatures between 43-46°C are forecasted for Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh.
  • Maximum temperatures of 40-42°C are expected in many parts of Vidarbha and isolated pockets of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Maharashtra.

Future Indications for Farmers

Farmers' Advisory

South India:Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka: Prepare for heavy rainfall by ensuring proper drainage in fields to prevent waterlogging, which can damage standing crops like rice, vegetables, and fruits. Farmers should secure stored grains and fodder to prevent spoilage. 

Coastal Areas: Farmers in coastal regions of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh should brace for potential strong winds and storm surges. Protective measures for livestock and securing agricultural infrastructure are advisable.

Eastern India:Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand: Light to moderate rains and gusty winds may affect the ripening and harvesting of Rabi crops. Farmers should consider early harvesting where possible and secure harvested produce to prevent damage from rain and wind.

Western and Central India:

  • High Temperatures: In regions like Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh, the high temperatures can stress summer crops and horticultural plants. Irrigation should be optimized to maintain soil moisture and prevent heat stress in crops.
  • Heat Management: Farmers should take measures to protect livestock from heat stress, provide adequate water, and ensure proper ventilation in animal shelters.

Impact on Agri-Commodity Prices

  • Rice and Vegetables: Heavy rains in Tamil Nadu and Kerala may lead to short-term supply disruptions, potentially increasing prices of rice and vegetables. 
  • Pulses and Oilseeds: Potential delays in harvesting and transportation in the affected regions could lead to temporary spikes in prices.
  • Grains: Storage and transportation issues due to rain and wind may cause fluctuations in grain prices, especially in regions expecting heavy rainfall and cyclonic impacts.

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