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Cyclone "Michaung" may make landfall b/w Andhra Pradesh – North Tamil Nadu coast with highest probability near Nellore - By Dr. B K Singh & Purnima Nair

 

Image Source: Multi Model Ensemble

A Well-marked low-pressure area formed over South-East Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify further into a Depression by today evening. It is predicted to move towards West Northwest direction for next 2 days. This depression is likely to intensify further into a Deep Depression by tomorrow over South-East and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal.

There have been 2 different predictions:

1. As per ECMWF forecast, this system should intensify and move closer to North Tamil Nadu and South AP coast by 02nd December. Hence, it will hit North Chennai as a Deep Depression in coming 2 days and cross coast near South AP and moving northward. If this happens, many areas of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh shall receive extremely heavy rainfall in coming 2-3 days.

2. Whereas GFS is taking a recurve by passing through the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and taking it to North Bay of Bengal.

According to BKC Aggregators, this system will intensify as a Cyclone Michaung and move towards North Tamil Nadu coast near Chennai to Nellore/Tirupati in coming 2-3 days. Then it will move along the coast from South to Central Andhra Pradesh. However, moderate rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu on 03rd December, whereas heavy rains is predicted from 4th December in many areas of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh areas like Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Vishakhapatnam, Guntur, Krishna, Godavari etc.

  • Some areas of Telangana are also likely to be affected with moderate rains.
  • Farmers of Andhra Pradesh are advised to store harvested crops immediately as cyclone likely to effect and Fishermen are advised not to venture into Bay of Bengal for coming 5- 6 days.
  • A Western Disturbance is been seen on the Himalayas. Due to this, scattered moderate to heavy rainfall or snowfall with thunderstorms is possible over Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh for next 2 days.
  • Light isolated rainfall is likely over Eastern Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh.
  • No weather activity likely over parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand etc. 

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